The looming question of Tunisia's 2024 presidential elections hinges on a contentious backdrop shaped by the 2022 adoption of a divisive new constitution. This constitution not only altered the electoral schedule, but also transitioned the governance model from semi-parliamentary to presidential, intensifying debates about the upcoming polls.
While President Kais Saied has affirmed his commitment to holding the elections as scheduled, doubts persist among political adversaries regarding the fairness and transparency of the process.
This scepticism stems from Saied's consolidation of power following his 2021 coup, which saw the incarceration of numerous opposition leaders and potential presidential contenders across the political spectrum, including Destourian Party’s Abir Moussi, Attayar’s Ghazi Chaouachi, the National Salvation Front’s Issam Chebbi, and Ennahdha’s Rached Ghannouchi.
The year 2024 commenced with the second round of local elections witnessing a dismal turnout of 12.44%, symptomatic of the low turnout of post-2021 ballots. Currently, the pool of declared presidential candidates lacks substantial electoral support, with many prominent opposition figures conditioning their participation on the release of political detainees and a return to the 2014 constitution. Saied's decision to seek re-election is perceived as a bid for legitimacy amidst this backdrop, underscoring the significance of both the electoral outcome and voter turnout. As Tunisia navigates this critical juncture, the core issues at stake revolve around the credibility of the electoral process and the trajectory of the nation's democratic evolution amidst a shifting geopolitical scene.
Erosion of Democracy and Voter Apathy
President Saied's systematic dismantling of post-2011 institutions underscores a pronounced trend toward hyper-centralisation, reflecting his aversion to checks and balances. Since seizing power in July 2021, Saied has actively worked to reshape Tunisia's governance framework in line with his vision of a "democracy from the bottom" model. This agenda has entailed the suspension, erosion, or severe curtailment of institutions established in the wake of the Revolution, including the electoral commission and the high council of the judiciary.
Authorities under Saied's regime have resorted to intimidation, arrest, and prosecution of activists, journalists, political dissidents, and social media users under the pretext of combating "crimes of expression", particularly criticism of the president, security forces or military. In September 2022, Saied doubled down by issuing Decree Law 54, targeting freedom of expression and press liberties, and criminalising the production, promotion, or dissemination of "false news or rumours".
The latter is punishable under article 24 of the decree by up to five years imprisonment – and up to ten if deemed to target public officials. Notable figures who have fallen victim to Decree Law 54 include Salvation Front member Chaima Issa, opposition politician Ghazi Chaouachi, and journalist Zied El Heni.
Concurrently, Tunisians exhibit a growing disengagement from political affairs, including electoral processes. Despite efforts such as Saied's National Consultation, which managed to involve 534,915 participants, political apathy persists. The 2022 constitutional referendum witnessed a meagre 28% participation rate, while the first round of legislative elections recorded an alarming 88% abstention rate. The recent local elections also saw abysmally low turnout rates of 11.66% and 12.44% in the first and second rounds, respectively. Saied's purported support base appears increasingly apathetic, signalling a deepening disconnect between the people and the political establishment.Haut du formulaire
The Murky Waters Of The War in Gaza
Since October 7th, global attention has refocused on Gaza, igniting widespread condemnation of Israel's ongoing actions, which are perceived by the Arab public opinion as genocidal, and backed by Western powers with colonial agendas. This outcry has galvanised Arab, Muslim and international communities, and Tunisia is no exception. Protests have erupted, with demands including the expulsion of American, British, German and French ambassadors from Tunis. The conflict has also reignited debates on legislation aimed at criminalising ties with Israel.
President Saied has long positioned himself as a staunch advocate for the Palestinian cause, a stance that shaped his electoral campaign in 2019 and contributed to his reputation. Despite his vocal opposition to normalisation with Israel, branding it as "high treason", Saied personally intervened to block the passage of a law criminalising such ties in November of last year. Tunisia's national constitutive assembly and parliament had previously rejected similar proposals in 2012 and 2018, respectively.
The resurgence of this issue follows public pressure and political calls to enforce the criminalisation of relations with Israel for all entities – whether institutional, corporate, or individual – operating within Tunisia. This renewed focus on the Palestinian cause and the reinvigoration of Arab political discourse since the Arab Spring's setbacks may signal a shift from recent socioeconomic concerns and internal democratic struggles, to regional geopolitics and resistance against Western imperialism and neo-colonial structures.
If this trend continues, the Palestinian cause could catalyse a return to political engagement in Tunisia and beyond, breaking the post-Arab Spring trend of depoliticisation and refocusing attention on broader regional dynamics and challenges, including the paralysis of Arab leadership on the global stage.
Towards A New Maghreb Union Without Morocco and Mauritania?
President Saied recently hosted Algerian President Tebboune and Libyan Prime Minister El-Menfi in Tunis, marking a significant diplomatic encounter. Their discussions, initiated on the sidelines of the seventh gas-producing countries forum in Algeria, covered a range of pressing issues, notably border control amidst migratory pressures from sub-Saharan Africa. The leaders emphasised the need for synchronised policies to address migration challenges, particularly in light of Italy's push for outsourcing to southern Mediterranean countries.
To bolster cooperation, joint working groups will be established to secure shared borders and spearhead large-scale investment ventures in cereal production and seawater desalination considering the climatic challenges facing North Africa. The meeting underscored a collective commitment to showcase a united Maghreb bloc, addressing common concerns, albeit with the notable absence of Morocco and Mauritania.
The latter’s conspicuous absence from this dialogue reflects the Arab Maghreb Union’s (AMU) longstanding dormancy, primarily stemming from entrenched disagreements between Algeria and Morocco over Western Sahara. President Saied's divergent stance on this matter, particularly in response to Morocco's unilateral normalisation with Israel, has strained Tunisia's relations with the Kingdom. Saied's official reception of the Sahrawi Republic’s president in 2022 further accentuated this rift, signalling a consequential shift in the country’s habitually neutral position in the region’s most significant conflict.
AMU's secretary general, the Tunisian Tayeb Baccouche, remains stationed in Rabat. Despite Baccouche's call to return home, Tunisia's reluctance to replace him highlights its diminished interest in reviving the Maghreb Union, a sentiment echoed by other regional actors. The region's minimal intra-Maghreb trade, comprising less than 3% of total trade, underscores the prevailing disinterest in regional integration efforts. Algeria, Libya and Tunisia’s initiative might instead mirror broader geopolitical shifts, with regional dynamics increasingly shaped by bilateral and ad-hoc alliances rather than cohesive regional blocs.
Navigating Political Tensions and Regional Shifts: Tunisia's Pivotal Moment
Tunisia finds itself at a crucial juncture, grappling with a myriad of challenges spanning domestic politics, regional dynamics, and global geopolitical shifts. The upcoming 2024 presidential elections highlight the precarious state of Tunisia's democratic institutions, exacerbated by President Saied's consolidation of power and erosion of gains made since 2011, prompting serious doubts regarding the credibility and legitimacy of the electoral process. The country's political landscape is marred by a troubling trend of voter apathy, as evidenced by dismal turnout rates in recent local and national elections. This disengagement underscores a widening gap between the populace and the political establishment, emphasising the urgent need for reinvigorated civic participation and trust-building measures.
Concurrently, Tunisia is navigating the conflict in Gaza, with President Saied's unwavering support for the Palestinian cause juxtaposed against his opposition to criminalising ties with Israel. This resurgence of regional geopolitics reflects broader shifts in Arab political discourse and may reshape Tunisia's foreign policy priorities.
In terms of regional cooperation, Tunisia's recent diplomatic engagements with Algeria and Libya indicate a desire for closer ties and collaborative efforts on common challenges such as border security and migration. However, the absence of Morocco and Mauritania from these discussions underscores longstanding divisions within the Maghreb region and the obstacles to intra-regional integration.
As Tunisia moves forward, it faces critical decisions that will influence its democratic trajectory and regional standing. Tackling the erosion of democratic norms, promoting political engagement, and navigating regional dynamics will be crucial amidst a complex internal and geopolitical landscape. Whether Tunisia can chart a course towards democratic consolidation and regional cooperation remains uncertain, but the stakes are undeniably high for the nation's future and the broader Maghreb region.