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China and other emerging actors are shifting global power structures, but understanding the challenges and opportunities at hand for the European Union requires a more critical analysis of broad narratives, which all too often present Africa as a homogeneous entity.

The upcoming Malian election offer few paths to improve the current situation, however there are many ways in which it could make matters worse. Due to a volatile political and security situation, next month’s elections could easily spark the major conflict Mali has desperately spent years trying to avoid.

Since the 23 February Summit, the G5 Joint Force (FC-G5S) has developed significantly, establishing its headquarters in Sevare, Mali, and carrying out its first two missions.

The security situation in the Sahel has been infamously perilous for decades; porous borders and large, ungoverned swaths of land permit a vast network of criminal groups, militants, and extremist organizations to operate with impunity. For years, the situation appeared to stalemate even with considerable international efforts mobilized[i] – all of which have failed to prevent numerous attacks on the capitals of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, and countless attacks on border areas.

Chad is widely viewed as a regional stabilizing actor, but internal economic and security vulnerabilities may jeopardize its valuable capacity, and have a larger domino effect on counterterrorism in the Lake Chad Basin and wider region.

Historically, Niger has enjoyed a relatively high level of stability, largely due to political cooperation, military support, and rural development. However, continued pressure from the European Union to stifle migration routes has come with unintended consequences, and threatens to shatter the delicate pillar of peace supporting the region.

Violence in Mali has seen a concerning uptick in recent months. As the rate of violence increases, the rapid implementation of the new G5 security force will be vital to maintain stability, and preventing the spread of extremist groups into neighboring states such as Burkina Faso and Mauritania.

Chancellor Merkel has received widespread recommendation for making Africa the centerpiece of her G20 Presidency and for recently supporting a G5 Sahel Joint Initiative- but despite these efforts, Germany has yet to deliver the ambitious, concrete financial commitments that are needed to concretely improve the security situation on the ground.